Western Balkans Braces for Surge in Anti-Migrant Disinformation in December

Regional monitoring agencies are warning of an expected increase in anti-migrant disinformation across the Western Balkans during December 2025, according to the latest issue of “DISINFO RADAR: Watch and Warn” published this month.

The twelfth installment of this monthly intelligence briefing, prepared in November, identifies several anticipated flashpoint events that could trigger waves of false narratives targeting refugees and migrants in the region. Security analysts suggest these disinformation campaigns may exploit seasonal factors and political developments to fuel xenophobic sentiment.

“We’re seeing a concerning pattern of coordinated disinformation narratives that specifically target vulnerable populations during periods of heightened social tension,” said Marija Petrović, a regional disinformation analyst working with the Balkan Media Watch Network. “These campaigns often blend factual migration data with fabricated security threats to create fear and division.”

The report highlights several upcoming events that may serve as catalysts for disinformation, including year-end political summits, border policy reviews, and the winter humanitarian crisis that traditionally affects refugee communities during colder months.

Experts note that anti-migrant rhetoric has become increasingly sophisticated, with false narratives often spreading across multiple countries simultaneously through coordinated social media campaigns. These efforts frequently attribute fabricated crimes to migrant communities and promote conspiracy theories about Western-backed “population replacement” schemes.

“What makes these campaigns particularly dangerous is how they’ve evolved to exploit legitimate concerns about economic security and cultural identity,” explained Stefan Nikolić, a security expert at the South East European Security Institute. “The narratives are designed to resonate with existing anxieties, making them more difficult to counter with simple fact-checking.”

The report also identifies key regional variations in disinformation trends. Serbia and North Macedonia are expected to see narratives focusing on alleged security threats and economic competition, while Bosnia and Herzegovina and Montenegro may face disinformation centered on religious and cultural differences.

Media literacy organizations across the region are preparing countermeasures, including rapid response fact-checking initiatives and pre-bunking campaigns designed to alert the public to likely disinformation themes before they spread widely.

“Getting ahead of these narratives is crucial,” said Ana Janković from the Regional Verification Center. “When people understand the mechanisms of disinformation in advance, they’re less likely to share harmful content without verification.”

The broader geopolitical context is also significant, as tensions between the European Union and Russia continue to play out through information warfare in the strategically important Western Balkans. Several recent investigations have linked coordinated disinformation campaigns to foreign actors seeking to undermine EU accession processes and regional stability.

Digital rights groups have called on social media platforms to enhance their monitoring of content targeting the region, noting that many platforms have fewer resources dedicated to content moderation in Balkan languages compared to major European languages.

“The asymmetry in platform resources creates a vulnerability that disinformation actors readily exploit,” warned digital rights advocate Nikola Đorđević. “Content that would be quickly flagged in German or French often circulates unchecked in Serbian, Albanian, or Macedonian.”

The “DISINFO RADAR” report concludes with recommendations for journalists, civil society organizations, and government agencies to collaborate on building resilience against the expected disinformation surge in December, emphasizing the importance of contextualizing migration issues within accurate data frameworks.

Regional media outlets are encouraged to subscribe to the monthly newsletter to receive early warnings about emerging disinformation trends and coordinate verification efforts across borders.