Ukraine Defense Forces Prepare for Possible Russian Large-Scale Offensive

Russian Military Buildup Points to Potential Major Offensive in 2026, Ukrainian Officials Respond

Ukrainian intelligence officials are responding to reports that Russia is preparing for a large-scale military offensive against Ukraine in spring-summer 2026, according to information published in the German newspaper Die Welt.

Andriy Kovalenko, who heads the Center for Countering Disinformation of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, addressed these reports in a recent Telegram post, suggesting that Ukrainian intelligence has been aware of these developments for months.

“Die Welt is not the primary source regarding Russian plans for spring and summer,” Kovalenko stated. “The fact that the enemy is preparing reserves to try to increase pressure in several directions has been discussed since December-January. The Western press is somewhat behind.”

The German publication reports that Russia is amassing substantial military forces along Ukraine’s eastern and southern borders in preparation for this potential offensive. This buildup comes despite public diplomatic overtures from the Kremlin, indicating a disconnect between Russia’s public messaging and its military strategy.

The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a respected defense think tank, has corroborated aspects of this assessment. According to ISW analysis, the Kremlin appears to be prioritizing a military solution to end the conflict rather than pursuing genuine diplomatic resolutions. Russian strategic reserves, which have been in formation since 2023, are reportedly central to this planning.

“The enemy’s plans are known, understood, and the Ukrainian Defense Forces are doing everything to disrupt them as much as possible,” Kovalenko emphasized in his statement, suggesting that Ukraine’s military leadership is actively developing countermeasures against the anticipated Russian offensive.

This potential 2026 timeframe represents a significant strategic horizon in the ongoing conflict, which has already surpassed two years of full-scale warfare following Russia’s February 2022 invasion. The extended timeline could indicate Russia’s need for substantial force regeneration and equipment production after suffering significant losses throughout the current conflict.

Ukraine is not passively awaiting this potential offensive. The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine recently reported that Ukrainian forces conducted 48 DeepStrike attacks on Russian oil and gas infrastructure in January alone, reportedly reducing Russia’s overall oil refining capacity by 19 percent. These strikes against Russia’s energy sector represent Ukraine’s strategy to undermine Russia’s war economy and degrade its ability to sustain military operations.

Military analysts note that Russia’s apparent preparation for a 2026 offensive aligns with patterns seen in other protracted conflicts, where combatants use relative lulls to rebuild forces, stockpile ammunition, and prepare for renewed operations. The extended timeline also suggests that Russia may be accounting for the impact of Western sanctions on its military-industrial complex, requiring additional time to overcome production bottlenecks.

For Ukraine, this intelligence presents both challenges and opportunities. While the prospect of a major future offensive is concerning, the extended preparation time provides Ukraine and its Western allies with a window to strengthen defensive positions, expand domestic weapons production, and secure continued international support.

Western defense ministries have not publicly confirmed the specific 2026 timeframe, though NATO officials have repeatedly warned about Russia’s long-term military rebuilding efforts. The Alliance has emphasized that support for Ukraine must be sustained over years, not months, reflecting an understanding of Russia’s strategic patience and resource mobilization.

As both sides prepare for potential escalation, diplomatic efforts continue in parallel, though with limited progress toward a comprehensive peace agreement that would address the fundamental territorial and security concerns at the heart of the conflict.