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Russia’s Waning Influence in Central Asia Acknowledged by State Media Figure
Russian state television propagandist Vladimir Solovyov has publicly admitted that Russia has “lost” Armenia and is “losing” Central Asia, according to a report by the Center for Countering Disinformation (CPD) of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council.
In statements that reveal growing concerns within Russian media circles about the country’s diminishing regional influence, Solovyov reportedly called for military action against these nations to maintain what he described as Russia’s “sphere of influence” in the post-Soviet space.
The Ukrainian CPD report coincides with data showing a dramatic reduction in the issuance of Russian passports to citizens from Central Asian nations through 2025. This decline has been particularly pronounced for Tajik nationals, with passport issuances dropping from over 173,000 in 2022 to only isolated cases throughout the past year.
The passport issuance program has long served as a cornerstone of Russian soft power in the region. “Traditionally, Moscow used labor migration and simplified acquisition of citizenship as a tool of ‘soft power’ and political influence on Central Asian states,” the CPD stated. This approach had previously facilitated the recruitment of Central Asian citizens into the Russian military.
The strategic shift in Russia’s migration policy appears to be backfiring, accelerating the region’s pivot toward alternative international partners. Central Asian nations have begun establishing deeper economic and diplomatic ties with other global and regional powers, including China, the European Union, and Turkey.
Analysts suggest this reorientation extends beyond purely economic considerations, reflecting a fundamental psychological and political distancing from Russian influence. The region’s growing independence marks a significant geopolitical setback for Moscow, which has long considered Central Asia part of its natural sphere of influence since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
“Russia’s harsh migration policy and xenophobic practices have the opposite effect: instead of strengthening its influence, the Kremlin is accelerating the loss of its positions in Central Asia, despite propagandistic statements about ‘historical unity’ and ‘strategic partnership,'” the CPD assessment concluded.
The development comes amid broader challenges to Russia’s regional standing, as Armenia has simultaneously strengthened ties with Western partners following the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, during which many Armenians felt abandoned by their traditional Russian allies.
Russia’s war in Ukraine has further complicated its regional relationships, forcing Central Asian nations to carefully balance their historic ties with Moscow against international pressure and new opportunities with alternative partners.
Ukrainian intelligence reports add another dimension to this shifting landscape, claiming to have identified over 150 foreign nationals from 25 countries recruited into the Russian military, with approximately 200 more allegedly preparing to join. These recruits reportedly come primarily from former Soviet states and countries in the Global South, suggesting Russia is seeking alternative manpower sources as traditional recruitment channels become less reliable.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has also weighed in on the situation, responding to concerns expressed by five countries regarding an alleged “attack” on a Russian presidential residence. Ukrainian officials dismissed these reactions as responses to Russian disinformation, suggesting they were “not worthy of Central Asian states.”
As Russia’s influence continues to wane, the geopolitical reconfiguration of Central Asia is likely to accelerate, potentially creating new security and economic arrangements in a region that has historically served as a crossroads between East and West. For the Kremlin, this gradual loss of influence represents a significant strategic setback in what it considers its privileged “near abroad.”
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16 Comments
The reported drop in Russian passport issuances to Central Asian citizens is a telling statistic. It suggests the erosion of a key soft power tool that Moscow has relied upon to maintain influence in the region. I’m curious to see how this development plays out going forward.
The drop in Russian passport issuances to Central Asian citizens is a telling statistic. This decline in a key soft power tool highlights the waning appeal of Russian influence in the region. I wonder what the geopolitical implications will be going forward.
The admission by a Russian state media figure that they are ‘losing’ Armenia and Central Asia is a remarkable statement. It suggests growing concerns within Russia about their ability to maintain control over their traditional sphere of influence in the post-Soviet space.
Absolutely. This acknowledgement of diminishing influence is quite telling. It will be crucial to see how Russia responds to this perceived loss of control, and whether it leads to any more aggressive actions in the region.
The admission by a Russian state media figure that they are ‘losing’ Armenia and Central Asia is quite remarkable. It suggests growing concerns within Russia about their ability to maintain their sphere of influence in the post-Soviet space.
You’re right, this statement from Solovyov is quite revealing. It will be important to monitor how Russia responds to this perceived loss of control, and whether it leads to any more aggressive actions in the region.
This news about Russia’s diminishing influence in Central Asia is quite significant. It reflects a broader geopolitical realignment in the post-Soviet space, with countries there potentially looking to diversify their international partnerships beyond Moscow.
The Ukrainian disinformation center’s findings about Russia’s waning influence in Central Asia are intriguing. It will be interesting to see how Moscow responds to this perceived loss of control in a region it has long considered its sphere of influence.
Absolutely. Russia’s reaction to this development will be crucial. Any attempts to reassert control through more coercive means could further destabilize the region.
This news about Russia’s declining influence in Central Asia is quite significant. It reflects a shifting geopolitical landscape in the region, with countries there potentially looking to diversify their international partnerships and reduce their dependence on Moscow.
This report on Russia’s waning influence in Central Asia is quite thought-provoking. It raises questions about the geopolitical realignment taking place in the region and the broader implications for global power dynamics. I’ll be following this story closely.
The reported decline in Russian passport issuances to Central Asian citizens is a telling statistic. It suggests the erosion of a key soft power tool that Moscow has leveraged in the region. I’m curious to see how this plays out going forward.
Yes, the loss of this passport program, which has been a cornerstone of Russian influence, is a notable development. It will be worth monitoring how Russia tries to maintain its presence and interests in Central Asia in the face of this shift.
Interesting to see Russia’s influence waning in Central Asia. This shift could have significant geopolitical implications for the region and global power dynamics. I’m curious to learn more about the factors behind this decline in Russian influence.
Yes, it seems the loss of Russian passport issuances has been a key indicator of their diminishing soft power in the region. This decline in a longstanding tool of influence is quite telling.
This report about Russia’s diminishing influence in Central Asia is quite thought-provoking. It seems the region is undergoing a geopolitical shift, with countries there potentially moving away from Moscow’s orbit. I’ll be following this story closely.