Russia’s Influence Wanes in Central Asia, Reports Center for Countering Disinformation

Russia’s Influence in Central Asia Wanes as Passport Issuance Plummets

A dramatic decline in Russian passport issuance to Central Asian citizens has been reported by the end of 2025, signaling a significant shift in regional geopolitical dynamics. According to the Center for Countering Disinformation (CCD) at Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, the process has virtually halted for Tajik citizens, with only isolated cases occurring throughout the year—a stark contrast to the more than 173,000 Russian passports issued to Tajiks in 2022.

The passport issuance slowdown affects not only Tajikistan but also extends to citizens of Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, marking a notable retreat of what has traditionally been one of Moscow’s most effective tools of regional influence.

For decades, Russia has strategically employed labor migration opportunities and simplified citizenship procedures as instruments of “soft power” across Central Asia. These policies helped maintain political leverage over these former Soviet republics while ensuring a steady flow of migrant workers into Russia’s labor market. The approach also created pathways for recruiting Central Asian citizens into the Russian armed forces.

The CCD report emphasizes that Moscow’s recent restrictions on labor market access and citizenship acquisition have substantially undermined loyalty to the Kremlin throughout the region. This policy shift appears to be backfiring, accelerating the loss of Russian influence rather than strengthening it.

“Russia’s tough migration policy and xenophobic practices have the opposite effect: instead of strengthening its influence, the Kremlin is accelerating the loss of its positions in Central Asia, despite propaganda statements about ‘historical unity’ and ‘strategic partnership,'” the Center concluded.

The ramifications of this development extend beyond mere administrative changes. Central Asian nations are increasingly pivoting toward alternative global and regional partners in response to Russia’s policy shifts. This reorientation is occurring not only in economic relationships but also at deeper cultural and psychological levels, suggesting a fundamental and systemic distancing from Russian influence.

Analysts note that this trend represents a significant geopolitical setback for Moscow, which has long considered Central Asia part of its privileged sphere of influence. The region, comprising five former Soviet republics—Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan—has strategic importance due to its energy resources, geographic position between Russia and China, and role in regional security.

The changing dynamics come at a time when other powers, including China with its Belt and Road Initiative, Turkey with its cultural and linguistic ties, and Western nations offering development partnerships, are expanding their presence in Central Asia. These alternative relationships appear increasingly attractive as Russia’s traditional mechanisms of influence deteriorate.

Regional experts suggest that Moscow’s inability to maintain its historical approach to the region reflects broader challenges facing Russian foreign policy. Economic pressures, international isolation, and shifting priorities have forced Russia to recalibrate its engagement with neighboring states, often at the expense of long-established relationships.

The CCD report coincides with other indicators of Russia’s declining technological position, noting that by the end of 2025, Russia ranked first globally in internet outages, further highlighting infrastructure and technological challenges facing the country.

As Central Asian nations continue to diversify their international partnerships, the long-term implications for regional security, economic development, and political alignment remain significant, potentially reshaping one of Eurasia’s most strategically important regions.