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Russia Intensifies Hybrid Warfare Against Poland Amid Escalating Threats
Recent cases of Russian espionage detected within Poland, including infiltration of the Ministry of National Defence, mark a significant escalation in Moscow’s hybrid warfare campaign against the NATO member. These operations, coupled with cyberattacks, acts of sabotage, and disinformation campaigns, pose a growing threat to Poland’s national security at a time when Russian officials have intensified their threatening rhetoric.
High-ranking Russian figures have made increasingly explicit threats toward Poland in recent weeks. On January 15, Sergey Karaganov, a longtime adviser to Vladimir Putin and prominent Russian foreign policy ideologue, made alarming comments during an appearance on The Tucker Carlson Show. He warned that if Russia began losing the war in Ukraine, it might resort to nuclear strikes against selected European countries, specifically naming the United Kingdom, Germany, and notably, the Polish city of Poznań.
Karaganov’s targeting of Poznań was not random—he explicitly referenced the American military presence there, stating, “If we carried out a nuclear strike on Poznań, the Americans still would never respond.” He further characterized the European Union, not Ukraine, as Russia’s true adversary in the conflict.
Days later, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reinforced this confrontational stance during a January 20 press conference summarizing Russia’s diplomatic activities. Lavrov declared that Western world order principles “no longer exist” and that “the law of the strongest now applies.” He accused Western countries of using “the authorities in Kyiv to conduct an armed confrontation with Russia,” adding that the goal of inflicting “strategic defeat” on Russia remains in the plans of European leaders.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov added to the anti-Polish rhetoric on January 28, criticizing Poland and the Baltic states for their alleged hostility toward Russia. According to Russian state media TASS, Peskov claimed the strained relations have historical roots, stating, “Take Poland for example. We really face challenges connected with Poland,” adding that Poland is among countries with which Russia “for centuries has lacked friendly relations.” He further asserted that “whoever comes to power there begins to hate Russia and Russians.”
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova joined the chorus, accusing Polish President Karol Nawrocki of “distorting history and shifting responsibility for the outbreak of World War II onto the USSR” following his speech at the commemoration of the Auschwitz liberation anniversary. She also demanded Poland take action regarding Ukrainian national Volodymyr Zhuravlov, suspected in the Nord Stream pipeline sabotage case.
Security experts note that Poland has become a prime target for Russian hybrid operations due to its geopolitical significance, international engagement, cooperation with the United States, and steadfast support for Ukraine. Polish actions such as closing Russian consulates and the judicial decision not to extradite Zhuravlov have further provoked Moscow’s ire.
Russia allocates between $2-4 billion annually for cognitive operations, including propaganda and disinformation campaigns across various channels. These efforts appear effective domestically—a recent Levada Centre poll found 62% of Russians identified Poland and Lithuania as the most hostile countries toward Russia.
The hybrid threat extends beyond rhetoric. According to official data, Polish authorities detained more than 50 people suspected of planning sabotage acts in just the final months of 2025. A year-end survey revealed that 68% of Poles expect further Russian sabotage attempts.
Cyberspace has become a particularly active battleground. Poland reportedly faces between 2,000-4,000 cyberattacks daily, with government sectors experiencing significantly more incidents than neighboring countries. According to Check Point Research, Poland repelled approximately 3,100 weekly attacks against government targets by January 2026—substantially more than the Czech Republic, Austria, or Germany.
A particularly concerning incident occurred in December 2025, when a coordinated cyberattack attributed to the Russian hacker group Electrum targeted Poland’s energy network. Despite Poland’s highly-rated cyber defenses, the hackers disrupted operations at approximately 30 facilities, including district heating systems and renewable energy distribution infrastructure.
As German intelligence chief Martin Jäger aptly observed, the current “cold peace” between Russia and the European Union could rapidly transform into a “heated confrontation” where hybrid actions evolve into conventional military operations. “We cannot sit idly by and assume that a possible Russian attack will occur no earlier than 2029,” Jäger warned. “We are already under fire today.”
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9 Comments
This is a concerning development. Russia’s hybrid warfare tactics against Poland are clearly escalating, from espionage to disinformation and nuclear threats. Poland must remain vigilant and work closely with its NATO allies to counter these growing threats to its national security.
The Russian infiltration of Poland’s defense ministry is a serious breach of security. Coupled with cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns, this marks a worrying pattern of hybrid warfare tactics aimed at undermining Poland’s stability and sovereignty.
Poland will need to shore up its defenses and information security to mitigate these Russian hybrid threats. Coordination with NATO partners will be crucial.
It’s clear that Russia is trying to destabilize Poland through a multi-pronged hybrid warfare campaign. Poland will need to shore up its defenses, both physical and digital, to protect its national security interests.
This situation highlights the evolving nature of modern warfare, where traditional military tactics are increasingly supplemented by more insidious hybrid approaches. Poland and its allies must remain vigilant and adaptable in the face of these multifaceted threats.
The Russian infiltration of Poland’s defense ministry is a serious breach of security that cannot be taken lightly. Poland must take immediate steps to identify and root out any further Russian espionage activities within its government and critical infrastructure.
Karaganov’s explicit nuclear threat targeting Poznań is an alarming escalation. This kind of bellicose rhetoric from a senior Russian official is deeply concerning and must be condemned strongly by the international community.
Poland and its NATO allies cannot take these threats lightly and must be prepared to respond decisively to any further Russian aggression or provocation.
The continued Russian hostility and threats toward Poland are extremely troubling. As a NATO member, Poland must work closely with its allies to deter further Russian aggression and safeguard its sovereignty.