Russia-Ukraine Conflict Creates Significant Supply Chain Disruptions

Russia-Ukraine War Devastates Global Supply Chains, New Research Shows

The far-reaching consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on global supply chains have been extensively documented in a comprehensive new study by researchers at Northeastern University’s London campus.

Dilshad Sarwar and Sara Rye conducted a systematic review of 22 scholarly papers analyzing the war’s ripple effects across international markets, publishing their findings in Frontiers journal under the title “The impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on global supply chains: a systematic literature review.”

Their research paints a grim picture of Ukraine’s economic devastation. Once celebrated as Europe’s breadbasket, Ukraine has seen its grain export capabilities severely crippled, wiping approximately $859 million from the national economy. Key ports like Odessa and Mariupol, which previously handled 70% of Ukraine’s exports, have been blockaded, attacked, or captured by Russian forces.

The economic impact extends far beyond Ukraine’s borders. During the first six months of the conflict, natural gas prices in Europe surged by up to 130%, highlighting the region’s energy vulnerability. Meanwhile, Russia’s economy, battered by international sanctions, contracted by 2.1% in 2022 and a further 0.2% in 2023.

“All we know is we don’t know much, to be honest,” says Rye, an associate professor in project management. “We know that there is a huge gap in the data.”

The researchers identified two major obstacles to obtaining reliable information: Russian disinformation campaigns and Ukrainian officials’ reluctance to reveal vulnerabilities.

“The problem in war, and especially in this particular war, is that there’s not enough data coming out,” explains Rye, who specializes in humanitarian supply chain research. “You don’t know how trustable it is or not because the Russian counterintelligence is too strong. They get a lot of misinformation out so you don’t know what data is true—and that’s a problem.”

Ukrainian authorities, meanwhile, are understandably hesitant to disclose supply chain weaknesses that could affect national morale. “They are not going to give an update and say, ‘Our supply chain is fragile’ and let you publish that,” Rye notes.

The long-term prospects for Ukraine’s economic recovery appear daunting. Previous studies cited by the researchers suggest that industries forced to relocate due to armed conflict typically take nearly a decade to return after hostilities end. With peace talks stalled—evidenced by the United States’ recent cancellation of a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin—resolution seems distant.

Sarwar, an associate professor in information systems, describes the impact on global food supply chains as “devastating.” Critical logistics infrastructure—ports, roads, and railways—has been systematically destroyed by Russian bombardments. Ukraine’s railway system, which has become a symbol of national resistance, faces frequent Russian attacks aimed at undermining both defense efforts and civilian resilience.

The researchers are now seeking primary data sources to gain deeper insights into the ongoing disruptions. Rye suggests that the approximately 5.7 million Ukrainian refugees, as documented by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, might provide valuable first-hand information through interviews and surveys.

Looking forward, Sarwar plans to explore how artificial intelligence could help rebuild and strengthen Ukraine’s supply chains. “I would like to look at how AI can possibly influence supply chains, especially in disaster-hit areas,” she says.

Despite the bleak outlook, Rye finds reasons for cautious optimism in Ukraine’s demonstrated resilience. “Unless the infrastructure is destroyed, there is still hope because they are still supplying something,” she observes. “They’re not supplying the essentials for living, but they are supplying weapons and so the supply chain is still working—it is just being replaced by different materials.”

As the conflict enters its third year, the full economic consequences remain difficult to quantify. However, the Northeastern research provides an important foundation for understanding the war’s profound impact on global trade networks and Ukraine’s path to eventual recovery.