Russia Preparing to Continue Ukraine War Until Fall 2026, Disinformation Official Claims

Russia Plans to Continue Ukraine War Until Fall 2026, Officials Warn

Russia appears to be preparing for a prolonged conflict in Ukraine, with expectations to continue fighting at least until the fall of 2026, according to a senior Ukrainian security official.

Andrii Kovalenko, who heads the Center for Countering Disinformation at Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, made this assessment in a Telegram post on February 12. “All actions by the Russians at the front indicate that they are preparing to fight at least until the fall,” Kovalenko wrote, suggesting Moscow is positioning itself for a multi-year war.

This timeline aligns with previous statements from Kovalenko in January, when he warned that Russia would attempt to intensify pressure along the front lines in February and continue “actively fighting” throughout the spring.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy addressed the potential duration of the conflict on February 11, stating that ending the war by summer 2026 might be possible, but only if there is genuine willingness from both Ukraine and Russia. Zelenskyy’s comments suggest that while Ukraine has an interest in bringing the conflict to a close, Russian cooperation remains uncertain.

Meanwhile, diplomatic pressure appears to be mounting from Ukraine’s Western allies. The Financial Times has reported that the United States is urging Ukraine to reach a peace agreement with Russia by May 15 of this year, citing unnamed Ukrainian and European officials familiar with the discussions. This pressure has reportedly led Ukraine to consider holding elections this spring, potentially as part of a broader diplomatic strategy.

The timeline discrepancy between U.S. diplomatic goals (May 2022) and Russian military preparations (fall 2026) highlights the significant challenges in finding a resolution to the conflict, now in its third year.

Adding to concerns about Russia’s military intentions, German broadcaster Welt has reported that Russian forces are amassing significant military power along Ukraine’s eastern and southern borders. The report identified several potential targets for renewed Russian offensives, including the Pokrovsk and Huliaipole areas, as well as territories west of Zaporizhzhya.

The continuing conflict has profound implications for regional stability, global security arrangements, and international economic systems. Russia’s apparent long-term military planning indicates the Kremlin may be preparing for a protracted conflict despite mounting casualties and economic sanctions.

For Ukraine, the prospect of several more years of warfare presents enormous challenges for civilian infrastructure, economic recovery, and population displacement. The country continues to rely heavily on Western military aid and financial support to maintain its defense capabilities.

The international community faces difficult questions about sustaining support for Ukraine over such an extended timeframe, particularly given competing global crises and domestic political pressures in key supporting nations.

Military analysts suggest that Russia’s willingness to commit to a long-term conflict reflects its strategic calculation that it can outlast Western resolve and eventually force Ukraine into accepting unfavorable terms. However, Ukraine’s resistance has proven more formidable than initially expected, and the conflict’s outcome remains uncertain despite Russia’s apparent planning horizon.

As fighting continues across eastern Ukraine, civilians continue to bear the brunt of the violence, with infrastructure damage, power outages, and displacement creating an ongoing humanitarian crisis that would only worsen with years of additional conflict.