Kremlin Plans to Intensify Disinformation About Ukraine’s Winter Preparedness, CCD Reports

Russian propaganda campaigns intensify as winter approaches, targeting Ukraine’s energy readiness and European support, according to Ukrainian intelligence officials.

A coordinated disinformation effort focused on Ukraine’s alleged inability to withstand the coming winter months is expected to surge in late October, the Center for Countering Disinformation (CCD) under Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council has warned.

Intelligence analysts anticipate that Russian media operations will capitalize on recent strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure to foster public anxiety and undermine morale. The campaign, informally dubbed “unprepared for winter,” aims to paint a dire picture of Ukraine’s energy and heating capabilities as temperatures begin to drop across Eastern Europe.

“Propagandists will circulate dramatic forecasts about an ‘energy collapse,’ ‘freezing cities,’ a ‘humanitarian disaster,’ and a ‘mass exodus of the population,'” the CCD stated in its assessment. These narratives will be coupled with claims about Ukraine’s supposed inability to effectively respond to Russian attacks targeting critical energy systems.

The psychological warfare strategy appears designed to erode public confidence in Ukrainian governance during a vulnerable seasonal transition. Russian information operations will reportedly emphasize supposed governmental failures, with messaging focused on allegations of “incompetence,” “corruption in the energy sector,” and an inability to protect citizens from harsh winter conditions.

Security officials warn that even minor technical disruptions or localized service interruptions could be exploited and amplified by Russian media as evidence of systemic failure across Ukraine’s energy grid and heating infrastructure.

The broader strategic aim appears to be promoting the narrative that Ukraine’s only path forward is capitulation to Russian demands. According to the CCD assessment, Russian outlets will increasingly frame surrender as “the only solution” to “save people from a cold winter,” attempting to weaken resolve for continued resistance.

This winter-focused disinformation push represents just one component of a multi-faceted information warfare campaign expected to unfold in October. The CCD identified several other planned propaganda vectors, including efforts to discredit the European Union’s upcoming 20th package of sanctions against Russia.

Additional narratives are expected to include manipulation of security concerns surrounding the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Europe’s largest nuclear facility, with false claims of “Ukrainian nuclear terrorism” designed to shift blame for safety risks.

The campaign also aims to undermine transatlantic defense cooperation at a critical juncture in the conflict, while simultaneously amplifying “anti-war” sentiment across European nations as winter energy concerns grow.

Of particular concern to security officials is targeted disinformation surrounding the European Union’s recent authorization for member states to intercept Russian aircraft and drones that violate European airspace. This development represents a significant escalation in European security posture that Russian propaganda will likely attempt to portray as Western aggression.

The CCD also noted planned hybrid influence operations targeting the upcoming parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, suggesting Russia continues to view democratic processes in Western nations as opportunities for interference.

Earlier in October, Ukrainian officials had already detected an uptick in Russian propaganda specifically aimed at discrediting the Ukrainian Armed Forces, indicating a coordinated approach to undermine both military and civilian morale as winter approaches.

The warnings come as Ukraine prepares for what many analysts predict will be another challenging winter, with energy infrastructure remaining a prime target for Russian missile and drone strikes. European and North American allies have pledged additional air defense systems and energy support, though the effectiveness of these measures against both physical and information attacks remains to be tested in the coming months.