Conspiracy Theory Expert Confronts Eaton Fire Disinformation Firsthand

A leading expert on conspiracy theories found himself on the front lines of a misinformation campaign last week when false claims about the Eaton Fire in Kern County began circulating online.

As evacuation orders were issued for the remote community of Twin Oaks in Southern California, University of Miami professor Joseph Uscinski, who specializes in the study of conspiracy theories and misinformation, was staying with his parents in their rural home in the affected area.

The fire, which started on July 16, quickly spread to more than 3,700 acres, forcing residents to flee with minimal warning. As Uscinski helped his parents evacuate, he noticed something disturbing happening online: social media platforms were flooding with baseless claims that the wildfire had been deliberately set.

“I study conspiracy theories and misinformation for a living, and here I was experiencing it firsthand,” Uscinski said in an interview. “The fire wasn’t even contained yet, and already people were spreading completely unfounded theories about its cause.”

The false narratives primarily centered on accusations of intentional arson, with some posts suggesting government involvement or environmental activists were to blame. These claims spread rapidly despite officials reporting that the investigation into the fire’s cause was still ongoing and no evidence of criminal activity had been identified.

Uscinski noted that this pattern has become increasingly common following natural disasters and emergencies. “There’s a psychological need to find someone to blame, especially in chaotic situations,” he explained. “When people feel vulnerable or scared, conspiracy theories offer simple explanations and identifiable villains.”

The phenomenon has been particularly prevalent with California wildfires in recent years. Similar waves of misinformation followed the Camp Fire in 2018, the Dixie Fire in 2021, and the Park Fire in Chico earlier this month. In each case, conspiracy theories emerged before investigators had determined official causes.

Fire officials with the Kern County Fire Department expressed frustration with the spread of misinformation, noting that it diverts resources and attention during critical response periods. Battalion Chief Mark Connelly emphasized that determining a fire’s cause requires thorough investigation.

“We understand people want answers quickly, but proper fire investigation takes time,” Connelly said. “When misinformation spreads, it can complicate our work and create unnecessary fear in communities already dealing with a crisis.”

Social media platforms have struggled to contain wildfire misinformation effectively. While companies like Meta and X (formerly Twitter) have policies against crisis misinformation, enforcement remains challenging. Posts about the Eaton Fire containing false claims received thousands of shares before content moderators could respond.

The situation highlights broader concerns about the role of social media during emergencies. A 2023 study from Stanford University found that misinformation peaks within the first 48 hours of a disaster, precisely when accurate information is most crucial for public safety.

For affected communities like Twin Oaks, where residents were focused on evacuating safely and preserving their homes, the online conspiracy theories represented an additional burden during an already stressful situation.

Uscinski pointed out that his academic knowledge offered little comfort when seeing his family’s community become the subject of false narratives. “There’s a big difference between studying these phenomena and experiencing them personally,” he said. “It drives home how harmful misinformation can be when people are already vulnerable.”

As containment of the Eaton Fire reached 75% by the weekend, allowing some residents to return home, official investigations into the cause continued methodically. Fire officials urged the public to rely on official channels for information and to avoid spreading unverified claims.

Experts like Uscinski recommend that during emergencies, people should verify information before sharing by consulting official sources such as CAL FIRE, local sheriff’s departments, and established news outlets that adhere to journalistic standards.

“What I witnessed with the Eaton Fire reinforces what research has long shown,” Uscinski concluded. “In crisis situations, misinformation can spread faster than the emergency itself, creating a secondary disaster in the information space that affects real people in real communities.”