Belarus Intensifies Campaign to Destabilize Baltic States, Says Disinformation Center

Belarus Escalates Border Pressure on Baltic States as Lithuania Faces Migration Surge

Lithuanian authorities have reported a significant spike in illegal border crossings from Belarus, marking what officials describe as an intensified campaign to destabilize the Baltic region. October saw 275 attempted illegal crossings—the highest monthly total in six months—with nearly half occurring during the final five days of the month alone, according to Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation.

The dramatic increase coincided with Lithuania’s decision to close several border checkpoints after detecting mass drone launches from Belarusian territory. These drones, primarily used for cigarette smuggling operations, represent part of what Lithuanian officials characterize as a coordinated hybrid attack combining economic pressure, information warfare, and manufactured migration flows.

“What we’re witnessing is a deliberate escalation,” said a Lithuanian border security official who requested anonymity. “The timing of this surge immediately following our border checkpoint closures demonstrates the responsive and tactical nature of these operations.”

The pressure on Lithuania’s eastern border reflects a broader pattern of tension in the region. Over the past ten months, Lithuanian border guards have intercepted more than 41,000 attempted illegal entries—a 20% increase compared to the same period last year. Security analysts view these numbers as evidence that Belarus is systematically weaponizing migration to exert pressure on European Union member states.

This strategy echoes similar tactics employed by Belarusian authorities in 2021, when the Lukashenko regime orchestrated the movement of thousands of migrants from the Middle East to Belarus’s borders with Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia. That manufactured crisis created humanitarian concerns and political tensions that reverberated throughout the EU.

Regional security experts note that Belarus’s actions align with Russian strategic interests in the Baltic region. “Minsk and Moscow are coordinating a multi-layered hybrid campaign against Europe,” said Dr. Elena Korosteleva, professor of international politics at the University of Kent. “Migration pressure serves as just one component of a broader strategy designed to strain resources, test NATO cohesion, and distract from other fronts.”

The Baltic states—Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia—occupy a strategically sensitive position as NATO’s eastern flank and have been vocal supporters of Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion began in February 2022. This support has made them targets for various forms of hybrid pressure from both Russia and its close ally Belarus.

Lithuania’s Interior Ministry has reinforced border security in response to the escalating situation, deploying additional personnel and surveillance equipment. The European Border and Coast Guard Agency (Frontex) has also increased its presence in the region.

“This is not simply about illegal migration,” said Agnė Bilotaitė, Lithuania’s Minister of the Interior, in a recent press briefing. “These actions represent a coordinated attempt to test our resilience and response capabilities.”

The EU has condemned Belarus’s actions, with European Commission officials reiterating support for Lithuania and calling for additional sanctions against the Lukashenko regime. However, addressing the root causes of the manufactured migration crisis remains challenging given Belarus’s isolation from Western diplomatic channels.

For residents of Lithuania’s border regions, the increased pressure brings practical concerns about security and stability. Local governments report strained resources and heightened anxiety among border communities.

As winter approaches, there are additional humanitarian concerns about migrants potentially stranded in harsh conditions between borders. International organizations have called for ensuring humanitarian protections while maintaining border security.

The situation underscores the evolving nature of security threats facing the EU’s eastern members, where traditional military concerns increasingly overlap with hybrid tactics designed to exploit vulnerabilities without triggering direct NATO involvement.