Bangladesh Elections: Disinformation Campaign Targeting India Falls Flat

In the tumultuous political landscape of Bangladesh, anti-India forces are intensifying disinformation campaigns as the nation approaches its February elections, according to Indian intelligence sources. These campaigns appear designed to provoke Indian agencies, particularly the military, into actions that could damage bilateral relations.

Intelligence Bureau officials report a concerning uptick in such activities as the election date draws closer. The primary objective seems to be goading Indian agencies into some form of intervention in Bangladesh that would turn public sentiment against New Delhi.

The Jamaat-e-Islami, a prominent Islamist political organization in Bangladesh, alongside Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), have reportedly been orchestrating efforts to foster anti-India sentiment among Bangladesh’s population. However, intelligence assessments suggest these campaigns have achieved only limited success, reaching approximately 5 percent of their intended impact.

Initial disinformation efforts focused on portraying India as the instigator of recent violence in Bangladesh, attempting to paint India as an aggressor responsible for the country’s problems. This narrative aimed to stoke public anger toward India among Bangladeshi citizens.

A particularly concerning aspect of these campaigns has involved targeting religious minorities in Bangladesh, seemingly intended to provoke a response from India, which has historically expressed concern for minority populations in neighboring countries.

The ISI reportedly attempted to influence members of Bangladesh’s military to adopt anti-India positions. While some military personnel have allegedly been swayed, intelligence sources indicate that senior military leadership has maintained a measured approach, preserving communication channels with their Indian counterparts.

One persistent false narrative claims that the Indian Army is preparing to attack Bangladesh. Intelligence officials believe that if India were to respond militarily to provocations, it could potentially turn Bangladeshi public opinion firmly against India – an outcome that would serve the interests of those behind the disinformation campaigns.

Despite the challenging diplomatic environment under Bangladesh’s interim government led by Muhammad Yunus, communication channels between the two nations have remained operational, helping to prevent misunderstandings.

Indian Army Chief General Upendra Dwivedi has emphasized the importance of maintaining open communication during this period. “All three service chiefs kept their communication channels fully open,” Dwivedi stated, noting that he personally remains in regular contact with his Bangladeshi counterpart. The Indian Army has also dispatched teams to Bangladesh to assess the situation firsthand and engage with local contacts.

An Intelligence Bureau official, speaking on condition of anonymity, praised India’s measured response but cautioned that the disinformation efforts by the ISI and Jamaat-e-Islami are unlikely to cease.

Pakistan appears to have strengthened its position in Bangladesh following Sheikh Hasina’s ouster and Muhammad Yunus’s assumption of power. Diplomatic ties between Islamabad and Dhaka have improved, with Bangladesh easing visa restrictions for Pakistani citizens, opening sea routes, and increasing defense cooperation.

However, intelligence sources suggest Pakistan faces limitations in its influence over Bangladesh. “Pakistan realizes that while several exceptions have been made, it cannot control the people in the way it does in Pakistan,” an official noted. “The people of Bangladesh prefer better ties with India when compared to Islamabad.”

This preference for stronger India-Bangladesh relations reportedly frustrates both the Jamaat-e-Islami and the ISI, driving their intensified disinformation efforts. Their strategy appears centered on provoking India into actions that would alienate the Bangladeshi populace.

As Bangladesh navigates this complex political transition ahead of February elections, the disinformation landscape represents just one dimension of the broader geopolitical competition for influence in this strategically important South Asian nation.