What to know about Greenland’s role in nuclear defense and Trump’s ‘Golden Dome’

In the midst of a hypothetical nuclear conflict involving the United States, Russia, and China, Greenland would find itself at the epicenter of global destruction. This strategic reality underlies former President Donald Trump’s controversial campaign to acquire the Arctic territory from Denmark, creating diplomatic tension with longstanding European allies and unsettling Greenland’s population.

Trump has recently emphasized Greenland’s critical role in his proposed “Golden Dome” missile defense system, a multibillion-dollar initiative he claims will be functional before his potential second term ends in 2029. “Because of The Golden Dome, and Modern Day Weapons Systems, both Offensive and Defensive, the need to ACQUIRE is especially important,” Trump declared on Truth Social last Saturday.

The week that followed saw Trump alternating between pushing for U.S. ownership and seemingly moderating his position, ultimately announcing a “framework of a future deal” on Arctic security on Wednesday, though details remain sparse.

Greenland’s geographic position explains its military significance. Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) launched by nuclear powers typically follow the shortest possible route—a ballistic trajectory into space and back down—between launch sites and targets. Many such flight paths from Russia or China to the United States, and vice versa, would cross the Arctic region.

For instance, Russian Topol-M missiles fired from the Tatishchevo silo complex southeast of Moscow would pass over Greenland if targeting America’s ICBM force stationed at bases in North Dakota, Montana, and Wyoming. Similarly, Chinese Dong Feng-31 missiles launched from newly constructed silo fields could traverse Greenland airspace if aimed at the U.S. Eastern Seaboard.

“If there is a war, much of the action will take place on that piece of ice. Think of it: those missiles would be flying right over the center,” Trump remarked Wednesday at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

The Pentagon’s early warning radar system includes its northernmost installation in Greenland at Pituffik Space Base, formerly known as Thule Air Base before its 2023 renaming to acknowledge the Indigenous community forcibly displaced during its 1951 construction. The base’s strategic location above the Arctic Circle—approximately midway between Washington and Moscow—allows its radar to monitor the Arctic region, Russia, and potential Chinese missile flight paths.

“That gives the United States more time to think about what to do,” explained Pavel Podvig, a Geneva-based analyst specializing in Russia’s nuclear arsenal. “Greenland is a good location for that.”

The base’s AN/FPS-132 radar system can detect objects as small as a car at distances up to 3,450 miles in a 240-degree arc, providing crucial early detection of ballistic missile launches, including those from submarines.

While promoting his “Golden Dome” concept at Davos, Trump insisted American ownership of Greenland is necessary for its defense. “You can’t defend it on a lease,” he stated. However, defense specialists question this logic, noting that the U.S. has successfully operated at Pituffik for decades without sovereignty over Greenland.

French nuclear defense specialist Etienne Marcuz points out an inconsistency in Trump’s argument: “Trump has never spoken of also needing to take control of the United Kingdom—even though it, like Greenland, also plays an important role in U.S. missile defense.” The UK’s Royal Air Force operates an early warning radar at Fylingdales in northern England that serves both British and American interests.

Marcuz further challenges Trump’s premise by noting that emerging technologies could actually diminish Greenland’s strategic importance. “Trump’s argument that Greenland is vital for the Golden Dome—and therefore that it has to be invaded, well, acquired—is false for several reasons,” Marcuz said. “Above all, there are new sensors that are already being tested, in the process of being deployed, which will in fact reduce Greenland’s importance.”

While Greenland’s location could theoretically provide an advantageous position for “Golden Dome” interceptors, the U.S. already enjoys access to Greenland under a 1951 defense agreement. Before Trump’s controversial campaign to acquire the territory, Denmark and Greenland would likely have accommodated American military requests for an expanded presence.

“Denmark was the most compliant ally of the United States,” Marcuz observed. “Now, it’s very different. I don’t know whether authorization would be granted, but in any case, before, the answer was ‘Yes.'”