U.S. job openings barely budged in October, coming in just below 7.7 million

U.S. job openings remained virtually unchanged in October, registering 7.67 million positions compared to September’s 7.66 million, according to a delayed Labor Department report released Tuesday. The stagnant figures reflect ongoing economic uncertainty as businesses navigate mixed signals in the labor market.

The October Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed concerning trends beneath the headline numbers. Layoffs rose to nearly 1.9 million, the highest level since January 2023, while the number of workers voluntarily quitting their jobs declined, suggesting waning confidence in job prospects.

“Businesses seeking to control labor costs will have to pivot to active layoffs, lifting unemployment, rather than rely on natural attrition,” noted Samuel Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon, in a written commentary following the release.

Job vacancies have been on a steady downward trajectory since reaching a record peak of 12.1 million in March 2022, when the economy was rebounding vigorously from pandemic-related restrictions. This cooling labor market reflects in part the lingering effects of aggressive interest rate hikes implemented by the Federal Reserve in 2022 and 2023 to combat surging inflation.

The economic landscape has grown increasingly complex as markets adjust to President Donald Trump’s significant policy shift away from free trade toward protectionism. The administration’s implementation of double-digit tariffs on imports from numerous countries has disrupted established trade patterns and created additional inflationary pressures as businesses pass along higher costs to consumers.

Federal Reserve policymakers are convening this week for what analysts expect to be an unusually contentious meeting to determine their next move on interest rates. Despite inflation remaining stubbornly above the Fed’s 2% target—partly due to tariff-related price increases—signs of labor market weakness have most observers anticipating a third rate cut this year, though dissent among committee members appears likely.

The recent 43-day federal government shutdown has significantly disrupted the publication of economic data, complicating efforts to assess the economy’s current state. The October JOLTS report was released a week behind schedule, while September’s figures were not published as a standalone report but instead incorporated into Tuesday’s release. The combined data showed a substantial increase in job openings from August’s 7.23 million to September’s 7.66 million.

Further complications in the economic data calendar persist. The Labor Department will release November’s employment figures next Tuesday, 11 days later than originally planned. The department was unable to calculate an official unemployment rate for October during the shutdown. However, it plans to publish some October employment data—including job creation numbers—alongside the comprehensive November jobs report.

Economists surveyed by FactSet project disappointing job growth for November, with forecasts indicating fewer than 38,000 positions added. They also expect the unemployment rate to inch up to 4.5% from September’s 4.4%. While this would still be relatively low by historical standards, it would mark the highest unemployment level in nearly four years.

The conflicting signals—persistent inflation alongside a cooling job market—present a challenging environment for policymakers, businesses, and workers alike. The economy continues to demonstrate resilience in some sectors while showing vulnerability in others, leaving economists and market participants struggling to determine its overall direction as 2024 approaches.