Saudi Arabia may have uranium enrichment under proposed deal with US, arms control experts warn

Saudi Arabia May Gain Uranium Enrichment Capability Under Proposed U.S. Deal

Saudi Arabia could acquire uranium enrichment capabilities through a proposed nuclear agreement with the United States, according to congressional documents and analysis from arms control experts. The potential deal raises significant proliferation concerns amid ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Iran over nuclear development in the region.

Both the Trump and Biden administrations have pursued nuclear cooperation agreements with Saudi Arabia to share American technology, potentially worth billions of dollars. The proposed arrangement would include safeguards with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), but nonproliferation experts warn that even limited enrichment capability could open the door to a possible weapons program.

“Nuclear cooperation can be a positive mechanism for upholding nonproliferation norms and increasing transparency, but the devil is in the details,” wrote Kelsey Davenport, director for nonproliferation policy at the Arms Control Association in Washington.

The timing of these discussions is particularly sensitive given the current geopolitical landscape. Saudi Arabia and nuclear-armed Pakistan signed a mutual defense pact last year following Israeli military operations against Hamas in Qatar. Pakistan’s defense minister made the notable statement that his country’s nuclear program “will be made available” to Saudi Arabia if needed – widely interpreted as a warning to Israel, which is believed to possess the Middle East’s only existing nuclear arsenal.

According to the congressional document reviewed by The Associated Press, the Trump administration aims to secure 20 nuclear business deals globally. The proposal argues that reaching an agreement with Saudi Arabia “will advance the national security interests of the United States, breaking with the failed policies of inaction and indecision that our competitors have capitalized on to disadvantage American industry and diminish the United States standing globally in this critical sector.”

The nuclear power plant technology market has become increasingly competitive, with China, France, Russia, and South Korea among the leading exporters. American officials see nuclear cooperation as both an economic opportunity and a way to maintain influence over nuclear development.

The draft agreement would include oversight of “proliferation-sensitive areas,” specifically listing enrichment, fuel fabrication, and reprocessing as potential areas of cooperation. This suggests that once bilateral safeguards are established, Saudi Arabia could acquire uranium enrichment technology or capabilities, possibly even from the United States.

This approach differs significantly from the United Arab Emirates, which signed a “123 agreement” with the U.S. to build its Barakah nuclear power plant with South Korean assistance. The UAE specifically agreed to forego enrichment capabilities, establishing what nonproliferation experts consider the “gold standard” for civilian nuclear power development.

The Saudi interest in potential nuclear weapons capability is directly tied to regional tensions with Iran. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has explicitly stated that if Iran obtains a nuclear bomb, “we will have to get one.”

Iran maintains that its nuclear program is peaceful, though Western nations and the IAEA have documented that Iran had an organized military nuclear program until 2003. Tehran has been enriching uranium up to 60% purity – a short technical step from weapons-grade levels of 90% – making it the only country to reach such levels without a declared weapons program.

While Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has issued a religious edict against building atomic weapons, Iranian officials have increasingly hinted they might pursue nuclear weapons amid escalating tensions with the United States. The Trump administration has threatened military action if Iran doesn’t reach a new nuclear deal, following nationwide protests and government crackdowns that reportedly resulted in thousands of deaths and tens of thousands of detentions.

The prospect of Saudi Arabia gaining enrichment capabilities raises complex questions about nuclear proliferation in one of the world’s most volatile regions, potentially triggering a regional arms race with far-reaching consequences for global security.