Newly created Polymarket accounts bet big on US-Iran ceasefire in hours before Trump’s announcement

New accounts on the prediction market Polymarket reaped substantial profits from well-timed bets on the U.S.-Iran ceasefire announced on Tuesday, raising fresh concerns about potential insider trading on the platform.

Analysis of blockchain data shows that at least 50 newly created accounts placed significant “Yes” bets hours before President Donald Trump announced the two-week ceasefire on Truth Social around 6:30 p.m. ET. These bets came despite escalating rhetoric from Trump earlier in the day, when he warned that “a whole civilization will die tonight” if Iran failed to open the Strait of Hormuz by his 8 p.m. ET deadline.

One wallet created Tuesday morning invested approximately $72,000 at an average price of 8.8 cents per share, later cashing out for a $200,000 profit. Another account, created just one day before the announcement, reportedly earned $125,500 from the event. In perhaps the most striking case, a wallet created merely 12 minutes before Trump’s announcement placed nearly $32,000 in bets at 33.7 cents, generating an estimated profit of $48,500.

Polymarket’s prediction markets operate on a scale from $0 to $1 per share, representing a 0% to 100% probability of an event occurring. The unusually precise timing of these bets has drawn scrutiny, especially considering there were few public signals suggesting an imminent ceasefire deal.

Some observers suggest these traders might have simply been predicting that Trump would back down from his threats, following a pattern critics have labeled “Trump Always Chickens Out,” or TACO. Late diplomatic efforts by Pakistan to extend Trump’s deadline by two weeks may have also influenced some of the higher-priced bets placed closer to the announcement.

While many traders profited immediately, others face a waiting period as Polymarket has labeled the Iran-U.S. ceasefire contract “disputed.” Despite the announced ceasefire, Iran continued to restrict ship movements through the Strait of Hormuz, and missile attacks in the region persisted. The dispute resolution process could take up to 48 hours.

The identity of these traders remains unknown through public blockchain data alone. Polymarket’s system of proxy smart contract wallets allows users to create multiple accounts, making it difficult to determine whether these were entirely new users or existing customers opening additional wallets. Only Polymarket possesses the internal data needed to make such distinctions, and the company did not respond to requests for comment.

This incident follows a pattern of similar trading activity on the platform. Earlier this year, newly created accounts placed large wagers shortly before Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s capture in January, resulting in substantial profits. Other clusters of accounts have repeatedly made successful bets on military actions involving Iran.

The recurring nature of these well-timed trades has prompted increased congressional attention. Representative Blake Moore (R-Utah), who has introduced legislation to regulate prediction markets, expressed serious concerns about the trading pattern.

“It’s highly unlikely that these are good-faith trades; it’s much more likely that these are insiders with access to information ahead of the public,” Moore said in a statement Wednesday. “Without some kind of restrictions, there is nothing stopping government or military officials from profiting from their positions.”

Bipartisan groups in both the Senate and House have introduced legislation that would expand the definition of insider trading to include prediction markets. Even industry leaders like Kalshi and Polymarket have acknowledged the need for clearer regulations regarding insider trading on their platforms.

Todd Philips, a professor at Georgia State University who specializes in prediction markets and their regulation, emphasized the importance of addressing these concerns. “This is why these markets need regulation,” Philips noted. “We can’t have people trading with inside information and expect other traders are going to be OK being in these markets.”

The incident highlights the growing regulatory challenges facing prediction markets as they gain popularity and influence, particularly when they intersect with sensitive geopolitical events and potentially classified information.