Israel’s recognition of breakaway Somaliland brings uproar and threats to a volatile region

Israel’s recognition of Somaliland as an independent nation has ignited diplomatic tensions across the Horn of Africa and Middle East, introducing a new element in complex regional dynamics.

The surprise diplomatic move has thrust Somaliland, a self-declared state that broke away from Somalia in 1991, into the global spotlight. For Israel, the decision offers multiple strategic advantages in a region where it seeks to expand influence amid ongoing security challenges.

“It is a mutually beneficial friendship,” said Somaliland’s Foreign Minister Abdirahman Dahir Aden in an interview. “Somaliland gains open cooperation with Israel in trade, investment and technology.”

Somaliland’s government has expressed its intention to join the Abraham Accords, a series of normalization agreements between Israel and several Arab and Muslim-majority nations brokered during the Trump administration. This would mark a significant diplomatic achievement for Israel in expanding its regional acceptance.

The recognition comes at a time when Israel continues to face attacks from Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, just across the Gulf of Aden from Somaliland. Military analysts suggest the geographic proximity could provide Israel with a strategic foothold to monitor and potentially respond to Houthi threats.

“If you are trying to watch, deter or disrupt Houthi maritime activity, a small footprint can provide disproportionate utility,” explained Andreas Krieg, a military analyst at King’s College London.

Somaliland’s strategic location along one of the world’s busiest shipping routes has already drawn interest from various global powers. The territory sits less than 100 miles from Yemen, where Houthi forces have severely disrupted international shipping through the Red Sea in response to the Israel-Hamas conflict. These attacks have forced shipping companies to reroute vessels around Africa, significantly increasing costs and transit times for global trade.

However, the recognition has provoked fierce opposition from Somalia’s government, which considers Somaliland part of its sovereign territory. Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud condemned the move, stating that Somali territory “cannot be divided by a piece of paper written by Israel and signed by Netanyahu.”

The recognition has also alarmed regional and international bodies. Both the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, representing 57 member states, and the African Union have issued statements condemning Israel’s decision.

Perhaps most concerning are the security implications. Al-Shabab, an al-Qaida affiliate based in Somalia, has already issued threats against Somaliland. “Members of the movement reject Israel’s attempt to claim or use parts of our land. We will not accept this, and we will fight against it,” said al-Shabab spokesperson Sheikh Ali Mohamud Rageal in an audio message.

The diplomatic development has further complicated the already intricate power dynamics in the region. Days after Israel’s recognition, Somalia annulled its security and defense agreements with the United Arab Emirates, a key regional ally of Israel that has invested significantly in Somaliland’s Berbera port.

The situation has potentially placed other key regional players in difficult positions. Turkey, Somalia’s largest investor and a rival to Israel, now faces new strategic calculations. China, which has viewed Somaliland with suspicion over its ties with Taiwan, canceled a planned diplomatic visit to Somalia shortly after Israel’s announcement.

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar visited Somaliland last week to solidify the new relationship. “This is a natural connection between democratic countries — both in challenging regions,” Saar stated, defending the recognition. Somaliland’s president is expected to reciprocate with a visit to Israel soon.

While both nations have confirmed their new ties will include defense cooperation, officials have been reluctant to provide specific details. “There are no limits as to what areas we can work with,” Somaliland’s foreign minister noted, adding that the specifics would be determined following his president’s visit to Israel.

Mahad Wasuge, director of the Somali Public Agenda think tank, warned about the potential consequences: “It could increase violence or bring proxy wars, particularly if the Israelis want to have a presence in the port of Berbera to counter threats in the Red Sea.”

Last year, American and Israeli officials reportedly discussed the possibility of Somaliland accepting Palestinians displaced from Gaza, though Somaliland’s foreign minister has insisted there have been no such discussions with Israel.

As regional tensions escalate, neighboring Ethiopia, Africa’s second-most populous country and a landlocked nation that views Somaliland as a vital route to maritime access, has maintained a conspicuous silence on the development—likely calculating its own strategic response to this shifting diplomatic landscape.