China’s exports grow 5.9% in November, while US shipments drop 29%

China’s exports rebounded in November after an unexpected contraction the previous month, although shipments to the United States continued their steep decline amid ongoing trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies.

According to customs data released Monday, China’s overall exports grew by 5.9% year-over-year in November, reaching $330.3 billion and exceeding economists’ expectations. This marks a significant improvement from October’s 1.1% contraction and signals resilience in China’s export sector despite global economic headwinds.

The data revealed a striking contrast in China’s trade relationships, with exports to the United States plummeting nearly 29% compared to the same period last year—marking the eighth consecutive month of double-digit declines in shipments to American markets. However, Chinese exporters have successfully redirected their focus to other regions, with substantial growth in shipments to Southeast Asia, Latin America, Africa, and the European Union.

China’s trade surplus for the first 11 months of the year has already surpassed $1.08 trillion, setting a new annual record even before December figures are tallied. This exceeds the previous record of $992 billion set in 2024, according to official data compiled by FactSet.

On the import side, China saw a modest 1.9% increase in November to $218.6 billion, improving slightly from October’s 1% growth. This uptick comes despite ongoing challenges in the country’s property sector, which continues to dampen consumer spending and business investment in the domestic economy.

The trade data arrives in the wake of a temporary truce reached between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping during their meeting in South Korea in late October. Under the agreement, the United States has reduced tariffs on Chinese goods, while China has pledged to halt export controls related to rare earth materials—critical components used in various high-tech applications.

“It’s likely that November exports have yet to fully reflect the tariff cut, which should feed through in the coming months,” noted ING Bank chief economist for Greater China Lynn Song in a report.

Despite the positive export figures, other economic indicators suggest continued challenges. China’s factory activity contracted for an eighth consecutive month in November, according to official surveys. Economists remain cautious about declaring a sustained rebound in external demand, even with the U.S.-China trade détente.

Nevertheless, the strong export performance has bolstered confidence that China will achieve its economic growth target of around 5% for the year. Chinese leadership, following a high-level economic meeting in October, has emphasized advanced manufacturing as a strategic focus for the next five years.

On Monday, President Xi led an annual economic planning meeting to outline growth strategies for 2026. According to state news agency Xinhua, officials reiterated their commitment to “pursuing progress while ensuring stability” in economic policy.

Analysts remain skeptical about the longevity of the current trade calm. “A stable global trade environment is not likely to last long,” warned Chi Lo, Global Market Strategist at BNP Paribas Asset Management, noting that China-U.S. relations “remain in a stalemate” despite their temporary trade truce.

Looking ahead, some financial institutions maintain an optimistic outlook for China’s export market share. Morgan Stanley predicts China’s share of global exports will increase from the current 15% to 16.5% by 2030, driven by the country’s advantages in advanced manufacturing and high-growth sectors including electric vehicles, robotics, and batteries.

“Despite persistent trade tensions, continued protectionism, and G20 economies taking up active industrial policies, we believe China will gain more share in the global goods export market,” Morgan Stanley Chief Asia Economist Chetan Ahya said in a recent note.