Benin holds a presidential election as security worsens

Voters in Benin will head to the polls Sunday in a pivotal presidential election as President Patrice Talon steps aside after a decade in office that saw economic growth but also democratic backsliding and security challenges in the north.

Finance Minister Romuald Wadagni, 49, is widely viewed as Talon’s handpicked successor and enters the race with significant advantages. Wadagni, representing the governing coalition, faces a single opposition challenger, Paul Hounkpè, in a contest many observers consider heavily tilted toward the ruling party.

The political landscape has been dramatically narrowed following January’s parliamentary elections, where opposition parties failed to meet the 20% threshold required for representation. This left Talon’s allied parties controlling all 109 seats in the National Assembly, providing a powerful platform for Wadagni’s candidacy.

Renaud Agbodjo, leader of The Democrats party, was barred from competing after failing to secure enough parliamentary endorsements, a requirement critics argue was deliberately engineered to exclude challengers.

“Ten years at the Finance Ministry have given him something rare in African politics: a quantified record — verifiable and difficult to dismantle in a serious debate,” said Fiacre Vidjingninou, a political analyst at the Lagos-based Béhanzin Institute, referring to Wadagni’s strong position.

The election’s first round takes place April 12, with nearly 8 million eligible voters. A candidate must secure at least 50% of votes to win outright, otherwise a May 10 runoff between the top two contenders will decide the presidency.

Wadagni’s campaign heavily emphasizes Benin’s economic performance during his tenure as finance minister. The country posted 7% growth last year according to the International Monetary Fund, making it one of West Africa’s most consistent economic performers.

Under Talon’s administration, Benin maintained robust growth for nearly a decade. This economic expansion was driven by agriculture, trade, and significant infrastructure developments, including a major port expansion in Cotonou that transformed the country into a key regional transit hub for landlocked neighbors.

However, these economic gains have been unevenly distributed. Poverty remains widespread in rural areas, particularly in the northern regions where development has lagged behind the more prosperous south.

While Benin has historically been considered one of Africa’s most stable democracies, Talon’s tenure has witnessed what many describe as a steady erosion of democratic norms. Human rights organizations including Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch have documented a systematic crackdown on dissent, citing arbitrary detentions, restrictions on public demonstrations, and mounting pressure on independent media outlets.

Constitutional reforms enacted in November further consolidated power by extending presidential terms from five to seven years, establishing a partially presidential-appointed senate, and raising barriers for opposition parties seeking parliamentary representation. Opposition leaders have accused Talon of weaponizing the justice system to sideline political rivals after changing electoral rules upon taking office in 2016.

Public discontent over rising living costs has sparked protests in recent years, met with firm government and security force responses.

The election takes place against a backdrop of regional instability. In December, a group of military officers attempted to overthrow Talon’s government in a failed coup, joining a troubling pattern of military interventions across West Africa. The coup leaders cited deteriorating security in northern Benin among their grievances.

For years, the country has struggled with spillover violence from neighboring Burkina Faso and Niger, where al-Qaida-affiliated extremist groups operate. The tri-border area has become a hotbed for militant activity, exacerbated by strained security cooperation with Niger and Burkina Faso, both now under military rule following their own coups.

Last year, Islamic militants killed 54 Beninese soldiers in an attack on military posts, highlighting the growing security challenges facing the country.

“In a context perceived as unstable, cautious voters tend to choose continuity and familiarity over the risk of the unknown,” noted Vidjingninou, suggesting the climate of regional instability might actually benefit the ruling party’s candidate.

The election has divided voters along multiple lines. Roch Gbenou, a civil servant in Cotonou, expressed concerns about wealth inequality and democratic freedoms but voiced skepticism about the electoral process, suggesting it “will ultimately only serve to legitimize a choice already made.”

Others, like retired police officer Mathias Salanon, praise Talon’s development record: “In more than 50 years of my life I have not seen such a fierce will to develop the country as during President Patrice Talon’s 10 years.”

For many ordinary Beninese like Sofiath Akadiri, a Cotonou resident, fundamental issues remain paramount: “The most important campaign issues for me are access to health care, education and jobs. We also need social justice and the restoration of democratic norms.”

As Benin approaches this critical transition, the country stands at a crossroads between continued economic progress and growing concerns about democratic backsliding and security challenges that will shape its trajectory for years to come.