Analysis: Canada’s leader leaves China pronouncing success, but Trump lurks in the background

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s diplomatic visit to China this week marked a significant step in mending fractured bilateral relations, with the specter of Donald Trump’s policies and rhetoric looming large over the discussions.

The high-level meetings between Carney and Chinese President Xi Jinping represent Ottawa’s first serious attempt in nearly a decade to reestablish meaningful ties with Beijing, as both nations navigate uncertain waters in their relationships with Washington.

Canada’s renewed engagement with China, its second-largest trading partner after the United States, reflects what Chinese state media have enthusiastically dubbed “strategic autonomy” – the recognition that Canada needs to diversify its international relationships given recent tensions with its southern neighbor. This approach acknowledges that even longstanding allies like Canada and the U.S. may need additional international pillars to support their economic and diplomatic interests.

During his three-day visit that concluded Saturday, Carney struck a careful balance, acknowledging the fundamental differences between Canadian and Chinese systems while focusing on mutual economic benefits. “We face many threats. You manage those threats through alliances,” Carney stated, noting his government’s desire to build an economy less reliant on the U.S. during what he described as “a time of global trade disruption.”

The visit yielded tangible results, most notably a reciprocal tariff agreement. Canada agreed to reduce its 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles to 6.1%, with an initial annual cap of 49,000 vehicles that will increase to about 70,000 over five years. In exchange, China will cut its total tariff on Canadian canola seeds—a major export commodity—from 84% to approximately 15%.

This agreement represents more than just economic cooperation; it signals Canada’s willingness to pursue independent trade solutions after facing unprecedented treatment from the Trump administration. Recent statements from Trump suggesting Canada could become “the 51st state” have irritated many Canadians, adding to frustrations over unresolved tariff disputes that continue to impact the Canadian economy.

“China is succeeding in driving a small wedge between Canada and the U.S.,” observed Nelson Wiseman, a professor emeritus of political science at the University of Toronto, highlighting the geopolitical implications of this diplomatic shift.

For Beijing, the warming relationship offers multiple strategic advantages. China hosts significant cultural ties with Canada, which is home to nearly 2 million citizens of Chinese descent. Vancouver, the nearest major Canadian city to China, bears strong cultural influences from China, meaning Beijing’s approach to bilateral relations resonates domestically within Canada.

More strategically, the rapprochement aligns with China’s broader ambition to position itself as a global counterbalance to what it terms American “hegemony.” Through its expanding economic influence and soft power initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative, China continues to seek partners willing to engage outside Washington’s sphere of influence.

China’s official Xinhua News Agency underscored the importance of stable Canada-China relations “in a time of heightened uncertainty,” referring to the challenges both nations face in adapting to rapidly shifting U.S. priorities. The commentary specifically mentioned “economic fragmentation, geopolitical tensions and resurgent protectionism” as shared concerns.

Both leaders maintained measured language during their interactions. Xi noted that their previous meeting “opened a new chapter in turning China-Canada relations toward improvement,” while Carney emphasized that Canada’s relationship with China had become “more predictable” in recent months—a statement that could be interpreted as contrasting with the unpredictability of U.S.-Canada relations under Trump.

“My guess is that the Chinese want the opposite in Canada to what Trump wants—a coherent country with a functioning economy. And of course friendlier to China, where a relatively strong Canada is more desirable than not,” said Robert Bothwell, professor of Canadian history and international relations at the University of Toronto.

Despite potential tensions this rapprochement might create with Washington, Trump himself commended Carney’s deal-making with Beijing, stating: “That’s what he should be doing and it’s a good thing for him to sign a trade deal. If you can get a deal with China, you should do that.”

The long-term impact of Carney’s visit remains uncertain, particularly given the volatile nature of international relations in the current climate. However, one outcome is clear: Xi’s government now has a stronger North American relationship than it did a week ago—a diplomatic achievement Beijing likely considers valuable amid global uncertainty.